Former Virginia Gov. James Gilmore (R) barely fended off a challenge from an underfunded socially conservative challenger at the Republicans' Senate nominating convention this afternoon, underscoring his campaign’s weaknesses as it heads into the general election against former Gov. Mark Warner (D). Gilmore defeated state Del. Robert Marshall with only 50.3 percent of the delegate vote. Gilmore was unable to handily win over the convention delegates, despite his high name identification from his tenure as governor and past chairmanship of the Republican National Committee. Gilmore now enters the general election at a significant financial disadvantage against Warner, who banked $5.2 million in mid-May. A sign of Warner’s financial advantage: His campaign announced today that it will be running its first advertisement Monday, a spot that highlights his work balancing budgets as governor.  By contrast, Gilmore reported $205,000 in his campaign account in May — and doesn’t currently have enough money to pay for a statewide television buy. Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a moderate Republican, was planning to run for the Senate seat but backed out when the state party decided to choose their nominee through a convention, citing the outsized role of social conservatives in the nominating process. The Crypt: Congressional News -- the House, the Senate and Capitol Hill - Politico.com

With just four days left until the Republican primary in New Mexico, Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) endorsed Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) as his favored successor, giving the five-term congresswoman a critical boost as she faces an uphill primary battle against her Congressional colleague Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.). Domenici had stayed out of the primary up until Friday night, despite the fact that Wilson has been his political protégé — and that he more closely identified with her more-moderate brand of Republicanism than Pearce’s sharper conservative philosophy. Domenici cited the anti-tax Club for Growth’s ad campaign attacking Wilson as the impetus for making the public endorsement, saying that “such outside influences should not be used to try to influence the voters of New Mexico.” “Heather Wilson is the brightest member of Congress I know, and I hope she wins,” Domenici said in a statement. “I do want to tell all New Mexicans that today I cast my vote for Heather Wilson in the Senate race. Having brought her into politics, I have the utmost confidence in her abilities to serve New Mexicans and Americans.” Pearce’s campaign issued a terse statement, saying they look forward to working with Domenici in the future. "I respect Sen. Domenici and look forward to working with him in the future. Our campaign is in good shape and we are confident of victory on Tuesday," Pearce said in a statement. Public automated polling has shown Pearce with a single-digit lead against Wilson — and Wilson’s aggressive campaign tactics (accusing Pearce of voting to cut Social Security in her latest ad) seem to confirm that she is running from behind. She is expected to do well in her home base of Albuquerque, but needs significant turnout there to offset Pearce’s strength throughout much of Southern New Mexico. The winner of the Republican primary will face Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) in the general election. Udall is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The Crypt: Congressional News -- the House, the Senate and Capitol Hill - Politico.com

It’s only June, but a full-fledged ad war is going on in Missouri, where Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) is locked in a competitive race against former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes (D). It all started when Graves’ campaign made a small media buy in what has become one of the more memorable ads of this election cycle. The ad accused Barnes of celebrating the “San Francisco-style values” of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi because she attended a fundraiser hosted by Pelosi in San Francisco. “Yes to same-sex marriage. Yes to abortion on demand. Yes to amnesty for illegal immigrants,” the narrator says in the ad. The ad famously features three multi-ethnic dancers (one of whom has a bizarre hairdo) to illustrate its not-too-subtle point that Barnes is culturally out of step with the district. Well, it’s apparently not all Graves has up his sleeve. His campaign recently followed up with another ad that hammers on the same themes, accusing Barnes of having an agenda “to make same sex marriage the law in Missouri.”  Graves unleashes early attack ads

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Alabama found Republican Senator Jeff Sessions leading Democrat Vivian Davis Figures by more than thirty percentage points. Sessions leads the Alabama State Senator 62% to 29%. In April, Sessions held a twenty-one point lead. Sessions is viewed favorably by 72% and unfavorably by 19%. Figures’ numbers are 33% favorable, 42% unfavorable, and 24% not sure. The numbers from Alabama are a rare bit of good news for Republicans in Senate polling. Early polling has shown at least ten Republican Senate seats are potentially in play including seats in Virginia, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Texas. Not all of those race will be won by Democrats, but the fact that so many Republican seats are vulnerable virtually assures that the Democratic Senate majority will grow. The underlying reason that so many Republican seats are at risk is that fewer and fewer Americans consider themselves to be Republicans. In Alabama’s presidential election, Republican John McCain leads Barack Obama a wide margin. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Alabama voters say Republican Governor Bob Riley is doing a good or excellent job. Just 10% say he is doing a poor job. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Sessions is given a 92.0 % chance of winning re-election this fall. Alabama Senate: Sessions (R) 62% Figures (D) 29%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Louisiana shows U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu with a three-percentage point advantage over Republican challenger John Kennedy 47% to 44%. Landrieu leads by nine points among women but trails by five among men. The incumbent attracts 69% of Democrats and has a twenty-two percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Kennedy earns 77% of the Republican vote. Landrieu leads among those who earn $60,000 a year or less while Kennedy leads among those who earn at least $75,000 annually. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Obama supporters also support Landrieu while 70% of McCain supporters will vote for Kennedy. McCain leads Obama by nine points in Louisiana, but the two men are very competitive nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Landrieu is viewed favorably by 59% of the state’s voters, Kennedy by 57%. Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Landrieu has a 59.0 % chance of winning re-election in November. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom. Republican Governor Bobby Jindal earns positive reviews as well--67% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Those giving the Governor positive reviews include 87% of Republicans, 57% of Democrats, and 55% of unaffiliated voters. Overall, just 10% believe he is doing a poor job. Jindal has been mentioned as a potential Vice-Presidential candidate for the GOP and spent Memorial Day weekend visiting with John McCain in Arizona. Louisiana Senate: Landrieu (D) 47% Kennedy (R) 44%

Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1978 and currently enjoys a twenty-three percentage point lead in his bid for re-election. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds Cochran attracting 58% of the vote while Erik Fleming earns 35%. Fleming is a former state legislator who ran against retired Senator Trent Lott in 2006. His brand new Senate colleague, Roger Wicker, is in a much more competitive race. Cochran’s solid numbers include support from 88% of Mississippi Republicans, 26% of Democrats, and 64% of those voters not affiliated with either major party. Cochran is viewed favorably by 65% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 24%. Fleming earns positive reviews from 37% and less flattering assessments from 42% of voters statewide. As an incumbent Republican Senator with solid prospects for re-election, Cochran is a bit of a rarity in Election 2008. Early polling has shown at least ten Republican Senate seats are potentially in play including seats in Virginia, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Texas. Not all of those races will be won by Democrats, but the fact that so many Republican seats are vulnerable virtually assures that the Democratic Senate majority will grow. The underlying reason that so many Republican seats are at risk is that fewer and fewer Americans consider themselves to be Republicans. John McCain leads Barack Obama in the race for Mississippi’s Electoral College votes. Nationally, the two are competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Fifty-three percent (53%) of Mississippi voters say that Governor Haley Barbour (R) is doing a good or an excellent job. Just 17% say he is doing a poor job. Mississippi Senate: Cochran (R) 58% Fleming (D) 35%

Mississippi’s appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R) finds himself in a very tight election battle to win the job on his own. University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has noted that this will be a “real political battle” which is “a rarity in a state that’s usually red as red can be.” The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds a pure toss-up--former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) attracts 47% of the vote while Wicker earns 46%. Musgove leads by ten points among women but trails by eight among men. The Democratic challenger leads among voters under 50 while the GOP incumbent leads among those who have passed the half-century mark. Musgove is supported by 81% of Democrats, Wicker by 76% of Republicans, and Wicker holds a very modest 44% to 40% lead among the state’s unaffiliated voters. Both men are viewed favorably by 49% of the state’s voters. Wicker is viewed unfavorably by 32% and Musgrove by 42%. Twenty-two percent (22%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Musgrove. Just 10% hold such a negative view of Wicker. Mississippi is in the unusual position of having two U.S. Senate races this year due to the retirement of Trent Lott. In December, Wicker was appointed to replace Lott by Governor Haley Barbour. Barbour also set November as the date for an election to replace Lott. Democrats had hoped to have a special election much sooner to avoid giving Wicker eleven months of incumbency. However, the State Supreme Court ruled that the November date would stand. Barbour may be a campaign asset to the man he appointed. Fifty-three percent (53%) of the state’s voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job as Governor. Just 17% say he is doing a poor job. In the other Mississippi Senate race, Thad Cochran enjoys a sizable lead and should cruise to re-election. Wicker is far from the only Republican Senator with re-election concerns this year. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Wicker is currently given a 48.0 % chance of keeping his job with a victory in November. Mississippi Senate: Musgrove (D) 47% Wicker (R) 46%

Not surprisingly, Senator John Kerry (D) is in great shape in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Massachusetts found that the 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee attracts 63% of the vote against either Jeff Beaty or Jim Ogonowski. Kerry also leads both possible Republican challengers by more than a two-to-one margin. Those figures reflect a modest improvement compared to a month ago. Kerry is the best known of all three candidates in the Bay State. He is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 32%. For Ogonowski, those numbers are 38% favorably, 35% unfavorable, and 28% are not sure. Beatty’s ratings are 27% favorable, 31% unfavorable, and 42% are not sure. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Kerry is given a 90.0% chance of winning re-election in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. Kerry is viewed favorably by 61% of Massachusetts voter and unfavorably by 37%. For Ogonowski, the numbers are 34% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Beatty earns positive reviews from 26% and unfavorably by 38%. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Massachusetts voters say Governor Deval Patrick is doing a good or an excellent job. Twenty-three percent (23%) say he is doing a poor job. In the Massachusetts presidential election, Barack Obama has a solid lead over John McCain. assachusetts Senate: Kerry Holds Dominant Lead

Virginia’s Grand Old Party is in for a good old-fashioned fight when it meets on May 30 and 31. Two contests will draw close to 4,000 delegates from across the Commonwealth to the Richmond Convention Center: one for a nominee to take on former Gov. Mark Warner for John Warner’s United States Senate seat, and the other to pick the party’s state chairman. In a contest that many believe he will win, former Gov. Jim Gilmore faces off with 17-year State Delegate Bob Marshall. Governor from 1998 to 2002, Gilmore inspired the allegiance of party stalwarts when he stuck with his campaign promise to eliminate the car tax as governor, despite scathing attacks by Democrats and some Republicans. While Gilmore has suffered as a result of deep splits with Republican legislators during his term and his take-no-prisoners approach to anyone, regardless of party affiliation, who gets in his way, his long relationship with Republicans statewide will be a tremendous boost.Known for his consistent and outspoken opposition to abortion, Marshall faces an uphill battle against the better-known and better-financed Gilmore. Marshall earned voter kudos for opposing an “abusive driver fee” bill that passed the General Assembly overwhelmingly last year, only to be the subject of statewide voter outrage once the hefty fees were imposed. He has also received statewide exposure from his recent Virginia Supreme Court victory. Marshall challenged the taxing power of regional transportation authorities, and won a ruling that non-elected bodies cannot levy taxes on Virginia citizens. While Marshall has motivated social conservatives who often make up a majority of convention-goers in Virginia, Gilmore expresses great confidence that the nomination will be his. He has secured the important endorsements of the Republican lieutenant governor and attorney general, and from more elected officials than Marshall, but as is always the case with conventions, it’s all about turnout: Which candidate can get his supporters to Richmond. In the general election, the victor will face former Gov. Mark Warner, whom the state and national media steadfastly label as “moderate.” Warner is largely untested, having easily defeated Republican Mark Earley in his principled, but poorly run race for the governor’s mansion in 2001. After campaigning on a promise not to raise taxes, Gov. Warner quickly spearheaded a successful effort to do just that. Gilmore or Marshall can be expected to assail Warner for his duplicity in pushing through the largest tax increase in Virginia’s history.

Hager vs. Frederick: The intensity of the Senate race, however, may pale in comparison to the sparks that will fly in the race for state party chairman between the current party chairman, retired businessman John Hager, 71, and a conservative young delegate from Northern Virginia, Jeff Frederick, 32. Hager became chairman ten months ago, when Ed Gillespie resigned to fill Karl Rove’s shoes in the White House. Hager, who had run for party chairman in 1992 and lost, ran again, this time defeating Gillespie’s executive director of the party, Charlie Judd, by two votes. Hager’s supporters, including most of the party’s congressional district chairmen from across the state, argue that now is not the time to change leadership—in the middle of the presidential and U.S. Senate races. They wrote in a recent letter: “Let us tell it like it is, now is not then time for disruption. Now is the time for us all to be together on the same page, working for the same cause and generating results.” According to Hager, his many years of party involvement, including his election as lieutenant governor in 1997 and his tenure in President Bush’s administration as assistant secretary of the Department of Education’s Office of Special Education, position him to lead the party with a steady, firm hand. It doesn’t hurt that Hager’s son, Henry, just married the President’s daughter, Jenna. President Bush may be beleaguered in national polls, but by the party’s faithful who pack conventions, he is adored. Jeff Frederick’s band of insurgents argue that unless new, dynamic leadership is elected to bring about a “rebirth” of the party, Republicans, who suffered losses in the General Assembly elections last year, will lose only more elections. Frederick claims his ability to win his own election as a conservative in a Democratic-leaning district in Northern Virginia, combined with his experience running his own technology company, is just what the party needs. And his reputation as an aggressive young legislator with innovative ideas about campaigning isn’t hurting him among younger Republicans itching for big changes. It’s shaping up as a heated contest, with the Frederick campaign attacking Hager for serving in Gov. Mark Warner’s administration (until he resigned when Warner proposed his tax increase) and the Hager campaign attacking Frederick as an inexperienced hothead prone to “rantings.” The blogs contend that Frederick is outworking Hager, and yet as one party regular from Southwest Virginia put it: “There’s just something about John Hager. Everyone just likes him.”

Warm-Up for November: Both candidates say they have the expertise to guide the state party in a difficult national climate. Hager claims to have righted the party’s woes; Frederick says unless something is done, the hemorrhaging has just begun. While most of the party leadership has endorsed Hager, some believe that’s not necessarily a reliable indicator of what the race’s outcome will be. They say many who believe the party is on the wrong track are supporting Frederick quietly out of respect for Hager’s long involvement in the party and his connections to President Bush. If district conventions are any indication, there is a change mood among the grassroots of the party, with conservatives picking up seats on the state party’s central committee in some congressional districts. It remains to be seen if that translates to a push for change at the state level. Whatever the outcome and when the dust settles, one thing is for sure: Virginia Republicans will have to show gleeful Democrats, who are reveling in the spectacle of an intraparty contest that is not their own, that these convention contests are just a warm-up to the real fight, against the real foe, in November.  Virginia GOP Faces Rousing Brawl

Senate candidate Al Franken's satirical and explicit take on virtual sex and other topics, published in Playboy magazine eight years ago, is drawing concern instead of laughter from some Minnesota Democrats. Rep. Betty McCollum, who supported the comedian's rival Mike Ciresi until he dropped out of the race for the party's nomination for the Senate, complained Thursday that she and other Minnesota Democrats will be on the same November ballot as a candidate "who has pornographic writings that are indefensible." "Do they spend all of their time defending him, or do they spend their time talking about issues that are important to this election?" McCollum told The Associated Press in an interview. "The whole story was a shocking surprise." Franken, a former "Saturday Night Live" writer and performer and a best-selling author, is the Democratic front-runner to take on Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. Minnesota Democrats hold an endorsing convention next week and a primary Sept. 9. "Al understands, and the people of Minnesota understand, the difference between what a satirist does and what a senator does," Franken campaign spokesman Andy Barr said. "It's unfortunate that she's trying to create divisions in our party rather than working with other DFLers (Minnesota Democrats) to take on the special-interest senator." Two other Minnesota Democrats in the House, Keith Ellison and Tim Walz, also expressed concerns about the 2000 satirical article that Republicans began circulating last week. None of the critical House members called on Franken to step aside. At one point in the Playboy piece titled "Porn-O-Rama!" Franken called the Internet a "terrific learning tool," writing that his 12-year-old son was able to use it for a sixth-grade report on bestiality. "As a parent and an aunt, and talking to other parents, people are very concerned about the type of Internet use that's out there, and how it has a potentially harmful effect on children," McCollum said. "Sexually explicit material is one of the things that parents are very concerned about, and want to make sure that they're steering their children away from." Ellison said that and other parts of the article about sexual activities "made me feel a little uncomfortable." "I have to ask myself, can I explain it to my 11-year-old daughter? I'd have considerable difficulty," Ellison said, adding that voters who have talked with him about it are "just sort of appalled." Nonetheless, Ellison said he will support Franken if he receives the state party's endorsement. McCollum was making no such promises. "I'll have to see," she said. Franken is the heavy favorite to take on Coleman, although he faces a challenge from college professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Washington remained firmly behind Franken. "We believe he'll beat Norm Coleman in the fall," said DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller. McCollum said she spoke briefly with Franken on Thursday and that the candidate wanted to speak again. "I told him this is a serious problem," she said. "I told him my cell phone's ringing off the hook. Union leaders call me, state House members are calling, I've had people in the coffee shop approach me, very concerned about this. They really feel this article is politically radioactive." Franken's 'Porn-O-Rama' Shocks Minnesota

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) launched the first advertisement for her reelection bid, which features statewide sheriffs praising her work securing federal assistance for law enforcement officials to crack down on illegal immigration.The federal program Dole touts in the ad trains local law enforcement officials to act as immigration enforcement deputies. “Most of us didn’t have the tools to identify and apprehend illegal immigrants who were repeatedly committing crimes. ...So Sen. Dole works out a solution, a statewide partnership between federal officials and North Carolina sheriffs to give us access to the federal tools to identify and apprehend and deport these repeat criminals,” several statewide sheriffs say in the ad. “She’s one tough lady with major league clout,” two other sheriffs go on to say. “I’m sure glad she’s from North Carolina. The one-minute ad is airing on broadcast television throughout the state, and will be airing for the next two weeks. It cost the campaign about $500,000 — a sizable chunk of the $3.2 million Dole reported in mid-April, in her latest filing report. The campaign’s significant advertising buy early in the election year suggests that Dole realizes that she faces a competitive race against state senator Kay Hagan, who handily won the Democratic nomination earlier this month. A series of polls conducted within the last month in North Carolina — including one from a statewide conservative think tank — show Dole polling below the 50 percentage point mark, and only leading Hagan by small margins, some within the margin of error. It also suggests that the issue of illegal immigration still resonates among many voters — despite the fact it hasn’t played a significant role so far in the presidential campaign. Instead of airing a debut biographical ad touting a laundry list of her accomplishments, Dole is focused squarely on immigration. Indeed, Dole said immigration was “the issue I’ve heard the most about” on the campaign trail and said she is making it the “centerpiece of her reelection effort” in an interview with the Greensboro News-Record. Hagan, for her part, has said that she supports the concept of the program, but expressed concerns about the federal government "throwing another unfunded federal mandate down on us at the state level." Dole focuses on illegal immigratiion in first campaign ad

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) holds an 11-percentage point lead over his Democratic opponent, businessman Bruce Lunsford, according to the McConnell campaign’s internal polling released today. The poll shows McConnell leading Lunsford 50 percent to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The numbers are unchanged in McConnell’s internal polling since Lunsford won the Democratic primary this month. “This is remarkable, since the survey was done at a time that Republicans were slipping nationally, and at a time that Lunsford was spending significant sums of money on advertising,” McConnell’s pollster Jan van Lohuizen wrote in the polling memo. “So no movement at a time like this is good news in my opinion.”The poll also shows McConnell holding a strong job approval rating: 57 percent of respondents said they approved of McConnell’s job performance while 30 percent disapproved. Fifty-five percent of voters had a favorable impression of McConnell, while 32 percent had an unfavorable impression. Lunsford had a lower net favorability rating: 34 percent held a positive impression of him, while 20 percent had an unfavorable impression. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between May 21-22, and was conducted by the GOP firm Voter/Consumer Research. The poll has a four percentage point margin of error. It contradicts the numbers from a newly released automated Rasmussen poll, which shows Lunsford leading McConnell, 49 percent  to 44 percent. Lunsford handily won the Democratic nomination this month, and is able to partially self-fund a bid to help him catch up with McConnell’s sizable campaign war chest. McConnell ended April with $7.7 million cash on hand. The Crypt: Congressional News -- the House, the Senate and Capitol Hill - Politico.com

 
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Kentucky Senate race shows Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford with a five percentage point lead over long-time Republican Senator Mitch McConnell. The poll, conducted just two days after Lunsford won the Democratic nomination, shows the challenger with 49% of the vote while McConnell earns 44%. These results stand in stark contrast to the Presidential race in Kentucky—John McCain leads Barack Obama by twenty-five percentage points. However, just 67% of McCain voters currently plan to vote for McConnell. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of McCain voters say they will split the ticket and vote for Lunsford. Recognizing the overall political dynamic, McConnell issued a statement last week indicating that he is looking forward to running against the “Lunsford-Obama plan for America." Given the state’s overwhelming preference for a GOP Presidential candidate, it makes sense for McConnell to link his opponent closely with the top of the Democratic ticket. It is not unusual for the number of ticket-splitters to decline dramatically as Election Day approaches. While McConnell will try to make Obama a part of Lunsford’s name, Lunsford will emphasize McConnell’s ties to the current President. George W. Bush won 60% of the vote in Kentucky during Election 2004 but just 32% of the state’s voters now say the President is doing a good or an excellent job. Forty-eight percent (48%) say Bush is doing a poor job. McConnell, the highest ranking Republican in the U.S. Senate, is viewed favorably by 52% of the state’s voters and unfavorably by 42%. He was first elected to the Senate in 1984. Lunsford, who served as Kentucky’s Commerce Secretary from 1980-1983, earns positive reviews from 47% and less flattering assessments from 43% of Kentucky voters. Lunsford founded a health care company in 1985 that has been a topic of conversation in earlier campaigns and will likely be scrutinized again between now and November. The economy is viewed as the top issue by 54% of Kentucky voters. Among these voters, Lunsford leads 53% to 38%. Lunsford also leads among voters who consider the War in Iraq as the top issue while McConnell is the overwhelming favorite among those who see National Security as the highest priority. Kentucky Senate: Lunsford (D) 49% McConnell (R) 44%

Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) holds a 10-point lead over Republican state senator Steve Stivers in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio), according to her campaign’s internal polling. The poll shows Kilroy leading Stivers, 47 percent to 37 percent. Kilroy is benefiting from fairly high name identification (78 percent), largely from her closely contested campaign against Pryce last election cycle. She had a net favorability rating of 10 percent — 44 percent of respondents held a favorably opinion of her, while 34 percent viewed her unfavorably. Kilroy’s favorability rating has rebounded from her political standing in October 2006, when a plurality of voters held an unfavorable opinion of her. The poll, conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group, surveyed 516 likely district-wide voters from May 20-22.  It has a 4.3 percent margin of error. "For someone who's run for this office for three years and someone who's spent $3 million... she's under 50 percent. We are very confident that when people know Mary Jo, which they do, and she's still under 50 percent, and they know Steve, we'll win," said Stivers campaign manager Mike Hartley, responding to the poll numbers. Kilroy came within a percentage point of defeating Pryce in 2006, with the advantage of running in a highly favorable Democratic statewide and national environment. She has been a strong fundraiser, banking nearly $1 million in her campaign account at the end of March. Stivers, who has served for five years in the state Senate, is one of the Republicans’ leading recruits this election cycle. He boasts a compelling biography, serving in Iraq as a lieutenant colonel in the Ohio National Guard. He previously served as vice president of government relations at the now-defunct Bank One. The district, based in Columbus, is highly competitive at the national level, and President Bush narrowly carried the district in 2004 with 50 percent of the vote. The poll, however, showed Bush’s approval ratings in the district currently at only 35 percent., with 62 percent disapproving of his job performance. The Crypt: Congressional News -- the House, the Senate and Capitol Hill - Politico.com

When any incumbent fails to top the 60 percentage point mark in a primary, it’s generally a warning sign for the candidate’s prospects in a general election, even in a heavily Republican state like Idaho, in a conservative district that gave President Bush a 39-percentage-point point margin of victory in 2004. Freshman Rep. Bill Sali (R-Idaho) may have his own reelection concerns after winning only 60 percent of the vote against an underfunded challenger, Iraq war veteran Matt Salisbury, in Tuesday’s primary. Sali is no stranger to close races. After narrowly inching past a slew of Republicans with 26 percent of the vote in his first Congressional primary, he only won 50 percent of the vote in defeating Democratic business executive Larry Grant in 2006 The close election result in such a conservative district was a warning sign to Sali, a former conservative state representative who entered Congress with a history of making provocative statements back home in the legislature. His ideological obstinance didn't exactly win him much bipartisan support in Congress — last year, he proposed a bill to fight obesity by reducing Earth's gravity in response to the Democrats' minimum wage hike proposal.This year, Democrats are fielding a challenger, businessman Walt Minnick, who has shown the ability to raise respectable amounts of money and who has already supplemented his campaign with his own personal wealth. Sali only reported $158,000 cash on hand and had $135,000 in debt. Minnick reported over $321,000 in his campaign account in mid-May. Still, even with the closer-than-expected primary, Sali still starts out as the solid favorite against Minnick. His district is one of the most Republican in the entire country, and Democrats failed to pick up the seat when they had a golden opportunity with the national environment heavily in their favor in 2006. Sali vulnerable in Idaho?

Virtually all recent polling data for Senate races has carried a consistent theme—more bad news for the Republican Party. That’s the case in Colorado as well as Democrat Mark Udall has opened a six-point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Udall attracting 47% of the vote while Schaffer earns 41%. For Udall, that’s an improvement from a three-point lead a month ago and two months ago. It’s also the first time either candidate has enjoyed a significant lead in the race. In February, Schaffer had a statistically insignificant one point lead. Udall and Schaffer are competing for the right to replace Republican Senator Wayne Allard. Udall has gained ground among unaffiliated voters over the past month and now leads by twelve among them. A month ago, the candidates were even among those not affiliated with either major party. Partisan preferences have changed little during that time frame--Udall still attracts 84% of Democrats while Schaffer is supported by 78% of Republicans. Udall is now viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s voters, up two points from a month ago. Those figures include 22% with a Very Favorable opinion and 15% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the Democrat. For Schaffer the numbers are heading in the opposite direction. The Republican candidate is now viewed favorably by 44%, down three from a month ago and down nine points from two months ago. Schaffer now earns Very Favorable reviews from 14% and Very Unfavorable ratings from 18%. One issue in the Colorado campaign has been a “fact-finding” trip taken by Schaffer to the Mariana Islands in 1999. The trip was paid for by a group sponsored by now-jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Schaffer has defended the trip and says he has never met Abramoff. His campaign has charged that an independent group raising the issue has been funded by George Soros and other wealthy Democrats. While the issue has been the subject of a television commercial and significant media coverage, just 37% of the state’s voters are even somewhat concerned about the relationship between Schaffer and Abramoff. That total includes 19% who are Very Concerned and 18% who are Somewhat Concerned. Among Democratic voters, 49% say they are at least somewhat concerned. Two years ago, a relationship with Jack Abramoff played a key role in ending the Senate career of Montana’s Conrad Burns. Burns had a much tighter relationship with Abramoff and early polling showed that 65% of voters considered it a significant voting issue. One reason for the relatively low level of concern among Colorado voters may be that voters expect lobbyists to be involved with legislators. Seventy percent (70%) say that most politicians are influenced by lobbyists. Just 12% disagree. That’s consistent with public attitudes from when the Abramoff scandal first broke. At that time, just 15% of Americans believe Abramoff did anything different than what lobbyists typically do. That survey also found that Americans trust used-car dealers more than Members of Congress. Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Udall is given a 54.4% chance of winning in November. Colorado Senate: Udall (D) 47% Schaffer (R) 41%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire voters shows hardly any change in the state’s U.S. Senate race. Jeanne Shaheen (D) now leads incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) 50% to 43%. A month ago, Shaheen led 51% to 43%. The race is remarkably stable. Prior to the current poll showing a seven-point Shaheen lead, the challenger had enjoyed an eight-point lead in three consecutive monthly polls. Any incumbent who is polling below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Sununu, facing a serious challenge from a former Governor of the state, is more vulnerable than most. This is the fifth Rasmussen Reports poll of the race and Sununu has never topped the 43% level of support. In each of the last two surveys, the challenger has hit the 50% mark. Additionally, Sununu may not be able to count on much outside support from Republican sources this cycle as the party faces a large number of troubled races. In addition to New Hampshire, at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play for the Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids. In Nebraska, the GOP is currently favored to hang on to the seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel. Rasmussen Reports will be polling the Mississippi Senate races next week. A commentary by Dick Morris looks at the coming GOP Senate Massacre which he says could be worse than even the worst previous years for Republicans. In New Hampshire, the Senate candidates are essentially even among men but Shaheen has a seventeen point advantage among women. Shaheen leads among those who make less than $75,000 annually while Sununu leads only among upper-income voters. Both candidate’s earn the vote from 81% of their own party while Shaheen has a fourteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters. Sununu is viewed favorably by 49% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 47%. Shaheen earns positive reviews 58% and negative feedback from 40%. In the New Hampshire presidential election, the McCain-Obama race is close. The two men are also quite competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. New Hampshire Senate: Shaheen 50% Sununu 43%

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey shows Senator Frank Lautenberg has a large lead in the Garden State’s Democratic Senate Primary. On the first step in his bid for re-election, the incumbent earns support from 49% of New Jersey Democratic primary voters. State Representative Rob Andrews is favored by 19%, and Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello earns the vote from 7%. Another 25% are not sure. Lautenberg is viewed favorably by 71% of primary voters and unfavorably by 21%. The other candidates are less known to voters. Andrews’ numbers are 47% favorable, 24% unfavorable and 29% not sure. For Cresitello, those ratings are 27% favorable, 25% unfavorable, and 47% are not sure. Over half of politically moderate Primary Voters (57%) say they would choose Lautenberg. Fifty-two percent of politically liberal voters would do the same. Among independent voters choosing to participate, 34% choose Lautenberg, while 19% would vote for Andrews. Lautenberg earns the support from over half (53%) of Democrats. Although Lautenberg is now 84 years old, over half of New Jersey primary voters (58%) do not think he is too old to serve another term in Senate. Thirty-percent (30%) disagree and think he is too old. Voters under 30 are fairly evenly divided on this question while older voters say Lautenberg’s age is not an issue. When matched against two potential Republican candidates in the Senate election, Lautenberg enjoys wide leads in the Garden State. New Jersey’s Democratic Governor, Jon Corzine, earns good or excellent ratings from just 40% of Democratic Primary Voters. Twenty-nine percent (29%) give him a poor rating. Garden State Primary voters are evenly divided on the question of whether Barack Obama should add Hillary Clinton to the national ticket as his running mate. Forty-one percent (41%) believe Clinton should be the Vice-Presidential nominee while 43% disagree. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democratic Primary voters in New Jersey say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for Barack Obama against John McCain in November. New Jersey Senate: Lautenberg Heavily Favored in Primary

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Mexico shows that Democratic Congressman Tom Udall continues to enjoy wide leads over potential Republican opponents in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Udall now leads Republicans Steve Pearce 53% to 37% and Heather Wilson 57% to 36%. Against both opponents, those figures reflect a very slight improvement compared to a month ago. In February, Udall was ahead by more modest margins. Both Republican candidates are competitive among men but lose by roughly a two-to-one margin among women. Udall leads both Republicans among all age groups and holds a double digit lead over both among unaffiliated voters. The candidates are seeking to replace retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici. New Mexico is one of several states where Democrats hope to pick up Senate seats in 2008. Earlier polls show that at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play during Election 2008 including North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids. In New Mexico, Udall is now viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by just 31%. Wilson’s numbers are 44% favorable, 50% unfavorable. Pearce is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 46%. In the state’s presidential election, Barack Obama leads John McCain. Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Udall is currently given a 78.5% chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. New Mexico Senate: Udall Continues to Enjoy Big Lead Over GOP Challengers

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chairman of the Republican Study Committee, and Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.), another RSC member, are seeking to hold a GOP Conference meeting to approve an "action plan" for House Republicans. Hensarling and Garrett began circulating a petition on Thursday, seeking 50 Republicans members to sign onto their plan for a special conference meeting. Under GOP Conference rules, if 50 members formally request such a session, it must be held. In a short letter to be sent to Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (Fla.), Hensarling informed the leadership of his plan for a special conference: "Pursuant to the Rules of the House Republican Conference, we hereby request that you schedule an immediate Republican Conference for the purpose of voting on provisions of an action plan for House Republicans." Hensarling and the RSC demanded, and got, a GOP Conference meeting this week to review an 8-point agenda assembled by the group that includes an end to "pork-barrel spending," a simplified tax code, increased oil exploration and other proposals. The RSC now wants the GOP Conference to debate and vote on elements of their "Action Plan" so it can become official House Republican policy. GOP conservatives believe the American public is "angry" and "getting maddier" because official Washington is not offering solutions to their day-to-day problems. A failure by Republicans to offer bold alternatives to Democrats this November could prove disastrous to the GOP. Part of the RSC manifesto released on Wednesday outlines this view of the current political environment: Hensarling, Garrett seek GOP meeting on RSC 'Action Plan'

For the first time this election cycle, the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee out raised its Democratic counterpart in a single month, but still lags well behind the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in overall fundraising. The NRSC raised $4.3 million in April, narrowly outdistancing the $4.2 million raised by the DSCC. The DSCC spent over twice as much as the NRSC in the quarter, but still had more $37 million cash on hand at the end of April. The NRSC banked $19.4 million at the end of the month. On the House side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continued to outpace the National Republican Congressional Committee. The DCCC raised $5 million last month, and spent $4.1 million of it – largely for special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana. The committee ended April with $45.2 million cash on hand. The NRCC spent more money than it received for the month, raising $4.3 million and spending $4.7 million – also targeted to the two recent special elections the GOP lost. The committee ended the month with $6.7 million cash on hand – less than one-seventh of the DCCC’s cash haul. The Crypt: Congressional News -- the House, the Senate and Capitol Hill - Politico.com

If her opponent’s polling numbers are to be believed, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) is facing a tough re-election campaign against Betsy Markey, a former staffer for Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar. Markey released internal polling numbers showing her leading Musgrave, 43 to 36 percent. The poll showed only 30 percent of districtwide voters wanting to re-elect Musgrave, while 38 percent said that they would vote to replace her. Only 40 percent approve of her performance in Congress, while 51percent gave her negative job rating. The poll was conducted by the Democratic firm Bennett, Petts and Normington, surveyed 400 likely voters between May 13-15. In response to the poll, Musgrave released her own internal polling from March showing her leading Markey, 47 to 42 percent. Still for an incumbent, Musgrave’s sub-50 percent total from her own polling is a serious warning sign for the November general election. Musgrave had the lowest winning percentages for any winning incumbent last election cycle, taking only 46 percent of the vote in a three-way race against Democrat Angie Paccione and independent Eric Eidsness.  The Fort Collins-area district, though, still favors Republicans: President Bush won 58 percent of the vote there in 2004. The Crypt: Congressional News -- the House, the Senate and Capitol Hill - Politico.com

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Republican Senator Ted Stevens is trailing by two percentage points in his bid for re-election. Stevens attracts 45% of the vote while Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) earns 47%. A month ago, it was Stevens with 46% support and Begich at 45%. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable, especially when they trail a challenger early in the campaign season. Stevens is supported by just 68% of those who plan to vote for John McCain. Twenty-four percent (24%) of McCain voters say they’ll be splitting the ticket to vote for Begich. Still, the partisan lines have begun to harden. Stevens is supported by 79% of GOP voters, up from 71% a month ago. Begich attracts 89% of Democrats, up eleven points in a month. Begich also has a 53% to 35% advantage among unaffiliated voters. Stevens is viewed favorably by 46% of the state’s voters, down from 50% a month ago. The number with an unfavorable opinion of their Senator has grown six points to 53%. Begich earns favorable reviews from 54% while 38% have an unfavorable opinion. Those numbers are down a bit from last month when he was viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 35%. On April 21, Begich officially entered the race to challenge the longest-serving Republican ever in the U.S. Senate. Begich was six-years old when Stevens was first elected to his current job in 1968. Six years ago, Stevens won re-election with 78% of the vote. Since then, however, he has been caught up in a federal corruption investigation. FBI agents served a search warrant on Stevens' Girdwood home. Two years ago, the state’s Junior Senator Lisa Murkowski narrowly held on to her seat and won with less than 50% of the vote. While Stevens may face a challenging road to re-election and is clearly vulnerable, he will get some help from the state’s political gravity which heavily favors Republicans. Additionally, Stevens may be helped by the Republican Governor Sarah Palin who continues to earn rave reviews—73% of the state’s voters say she is doing a good or an excellent job. Just 7% say she is doing a poor job. Stevens is far from the only Republican in trouble this year. Democrats have at least a chance of picking up Republican seats in Virginia,